Opinion: How the Opposition was Won, 2015-2020
The opposition has lost the elections before they have even been held. And no it is not because of any unfair playing field because the rules governing these elections are the same as they have always been. They are tue same set of rules which were in effect when the opposition was confident they would win the 2015 general elections. No, the opposition has lost these elections because they have been won. You see, the opposition took a gamble in 2015 which meant it was do or die for them. They welcomed in a former prime minister hoping that his popularity, network and influence would get them over the proverbial hump. A win would have ensured they made history, a loss would have ensured that all the gains they had made in the passed decade would immediately decimate. We all know the outcome, they lost, and with it, the marriage of convinience and not conviction of the opposition called UKAWA died.
You see, the opposition has been won because during these last five years, CCM has done all it can to unify and energize the party, while the opposition dismantled the union that was seen as their only hope of defeating CCM. I have already discussed the failures of UKAWA and the difficulties in forming an opposition grand coalition in another article so I won’t go into details of that in here. What I will talk about is a sequence of events from the general elections of 2015 up to now which has left the main opposition party Chadema standing on its knees and CCM poised for another election victory.
First and foremost, CCM made the right choice of chosing John Pombe Magufuli. He was a candidate with no network or alliances with any major political figues within CCM nor was he tied to any wealthy business people. This ensured that he could unite the party and be his own man once elected. Indeed once John Pombe Magufuli became president, he danced to the beat of his own drum. Immediately the civil service, CCM and the country knew it was no longer business as usual. His first steps were geared towards fighting corruption, neglegence and incompetence within the government. ALL these were moves that ordinary citizens had been crying over for for many years. This ensured that the citizens would have no regrets electing him over the opposition. The country felt they had found the right man at the right moment for the most important job in the country. He fired civil servants who were not up to speed with his vision for the country, removed those without the proper qualifications, and wove different government agencies and offices. Indeed in 2016 the theme was “What would Magufuli do".
The second step Magufuli took came right after he was elected party chairman of CCM. All those who showed decent during the 2015 nomination process were punished, including Sophia Simba, Emmanuel Nchimbi and Alhaji Kimbisa who showed insubordination by publically protesting the decision of an internal party organ. He appointed fresh faces to the parties sekretariat including Dr. Ally Bashiru (appointed in 2018) and Humphrey Polepole (appointed in 2016). He clearly wanted to change the inner workings of the party and ensure the party was united moving forward. He chastized members of CCM central committee who famously sanga tuna imani na Lowasa ‘we have faith in Lowasa' when then chairman Jakaya Kikwete walked into the central committee meeting after Lowasa’s name was cut out of contention in 2015. Just this year we saw former party secretary general Abdulrahman Kinana recieve an official warning (he has now been forgiven after a public apology)and former foreign minister Bernard Membe (he has officialy returned his membership card) being ousted from the party. Former secretary general Yusuf Makamba was forgiven immediately for his wrong doings. All were accused of going against party principles.
Subsequently the main opposition party, Chadema has shot itself on the foot several times since 2015, hindering their own progress. The first mistep was allowing UKAWA to die off. As soon as the 2015 elections ended they should have immediately brought other member parties together and discussed a way forwad as a group. Freeman Mbowe should have lead the charge just as President Magufuli did, to iron out the differences among UKAWA members and come up with a new working proposal as the main opposition bloc for the next five years. None of that was done and as a result Dr. Slaa, a prominent Chadema member left and soon afterwards other opposition parties left the coalition to focus on their own politics.
The other strategic mistake that Chadema has made is that they have become opposers of everything and proposers of nothing. Smart opposition parties do everything they can to take the credit when the government does something that is positive or popular and propose an alternative when the government does something negative or unpopular. Chadema is now left to oppose policies and strategies which was in their own campaign manefesto of 2015 simply because it was done by the government. A good example of this is the revitalization of ATCL, the national carrier. This was in their own manefesto but now they appear to be not just against how ATCL was revitalized but against the revitalization itself. Another example is how prominent leaders of Chadema and ACT were against Tanzania recieveing a loan from the World Bank which would go towards public education. The leader of ACT went as far as to write to the World Bank requesting that they withold the loan over his policy disagreements with the government. When a majority of Tanzanians hear of such acts they get the impression that the opposition is actually trying to sabotage the government, a move which hurts and affects millions of low income citizens.
Freeman Mbowe’s inability to be a unifier of conflicting interests has led many of his own MPs elected in 2015 to break with the party numerous times and in other cases leave the party entirely to go join CCM. The rhetoric that remains is that members of his party who leave do so because they were bought off by CCM, conveniently having not brought the same argument when it was prominent members of CCM leaving the party to join them back in 2015. Indeed this goes hand in hand with being a party that simply opposes everything. Some Chadema MPs who have left the party have expressed dissatisfaction with how the party was being run. Some MPs left the party after they were publicly called out by their party leaders for having not skipped parliament sessions during the Covid19 pandemic. These MPs wanted to be available in parliament to represent these constituents but for political reasons, their party wanted them to abandon their duties. Indeed even in the U.S. where they have had over 3 million confirmed cases and over 100,000 deaths, the legislative branch is still working and members attending session.
The opposition has not done its best to convince people who do not necessarily agree with their politics. It is now common place for the opposition to simple dismiss anyone who disagrees with them as a crony of the ruling party. Perhaps that is why they view it as democracy when members of the ruling party leave to join their ranks but view the same act as being a paid agent when their own members crossover to the ruling party. Democracy should be preached and exercised. It is Zitto Kabwe’s own admission that his rift with the party started when he had ambitions to be Chadema’s party chair. It is Dr. Slaa’s own admission that the nomination of the UKAWA presidential nominee was neither fair nor democratic. Time and time again, almost everyone who leaves Chadema complains of the lack of democracy within the party.
ALL of the above factors have lead to the opposition having been won by CCM. We are seeing opposition parties aligning with CCM more than they align with each other. During CCM’s Central Committee meeting of 11th July, 2020, we saw the chairmen of TLP, UDP and CUF as invited guests of the ruling party. Infact TLP and UDP has voted to support President Magufuli’s reelection bid. Instead of the opposition rallying against the ruling party, some are rallying for it. That speaks volumes of President Magufuli’s strategy and a lack there of from the main opposition party. President Magufuli will win a second time with resounding numbers and Chadema will be left to claim that an election they had already lost a long time ago, was not free or fair.
Thomas Joel Kibwana.
